Executive Summary

Q3 2025 was pre‑revenue and delivered a net loss of $5.4M and EPS of $0.11, essentially flat vs. prior year ($4.2M loss; $0.11 EPS) .
EPS matched the single-analyst Wall Street consensus for Q3 2025 at $0.11*, while EBITDA came in better than the consensus loss (actual −$2.60M vs. est. −$4.06M*).
Post-quarter, management accelerated financing and development: three equity offerings closed in Q3/Q4 aggregating $155.0M gross proceeds, land acquisition of ~407 acres, and a record cash balance of $162.8M as of Sept 30, 2025 .
The largest driver of subsequent quarter volatility: non‑cash earnout and warrant remeasurement losses (~$32.1M) recorded in Q1 2026; adjusted net loss in Q1 2026 was much smaller at $8.3M .
Near‑term catalysts: feasibility study update, ongoing Elk Creek drilling, and potential DoD reimbursements up to $10.0M tied to milestones .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Execution on funding and liquidity: Three equity offerings completed (gross proceeds ~$155.0M), warrant exercises added ~$15.2M; cash reached $162.8M at Sept 30, 2025 .
- Project execution: ~407 acres acquired encompassing resource/reserve and construction footprint, supporting permit-ready status pending financing .
- Forward program: drilling and feasibility study update spend of $6.8M; DoD reimbursement eligibility up to ~$10.0M tied to milestones (engineering, reserve drilling, updated cost estimates) .
- “The Company had a record cash balance of $162.8 million … as of September 30, 2025.” (Press release) .
What Went Wrong
- Scale remains pre‑revenue; operating loss persists (Q3 2025 loss $5.4M) with no revenue to offset fixed/project costs .
- Subsequent quarter (Q1 2026) book volatility dominated by non‑cash liabilities (earnout, warrants) driving GAAP net loss of $42.7M; adjusted loss was $8.3M .
- Ongoing financing dependence and listed risks (going concern, capital needs, EXIM/UK Export Finance uncertainty, Nasdaq compliance) remain prominent in disclosures .

Quarterly trend (company is pre‑revenue):

Metric	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026
Revenues ($USD)	n/a	n/a*	n/a
Net Income ($USD Millions)	−$5.4	−$9.6*	−$42.7
Diluted EPS ($USD)	−$0.11	−$0.17*	−$0.53
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	−$2.60*	−$5.06*	−$12.02*
Operating Income ($USD Millions)	−$2.60*	−$5.06*	−$12.02*
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)	$2.60*	$5.06*	$12.02*

YoY comparison (Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2024):

Metric	Q3 2024	Q3 2025
Net Loss ($USD Millions)	−$4.2	−$5.4
EPS ($USD)	−$0.11	−$0.11

Versus Wall Street consensus (Q3 2025):

Metric	Consensus	Actual	# of Estimates
Primary EPS ($USD)	−$0.11*	−$0.11	1*
Revenue ($USD)	$0*	n/a	1*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	−$4.06*	−$2.60*	n/a

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
—	—	—	No formal guidance provided	—

No quantitative guidance was provided in Q3 2025 press materials .

No earnings call transcript was available for Q3 2025.

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2)	Previous Mentions (Q-1)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Project financing	Not available	Not available	Continued emphasis on securing sufficient project financing to move Elk Creek to construction/operations	Persistent priority
Feasibility study & drilling	Not available	Not available	Active drilling campaign; feasibility study update in progress (spend in Q1 2026 disclosed subsequently)	Increasing activity
Government support (DoD)	Not available	Not available	Up to ~$10.0M reimbursements contingent on milestones	Positive potential
Land and permits	Not available	Not available	~407 acres acquired encompassing resource/reserve and construction footprint	Strengthening readiness
Capital markets activity	Not available	Not available	Multiple offerings closed; focus on liquidity	Accelerating

“NioCorp intends to file its unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the period ended March 31, 2025 in its Quarterly Report on Form 10‑Q on or before May 15, 2025.” (Press release) .
“During the quarter ended September 30, 2025, the Company completed three previously announced equity offerings, which together generated aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $155.0 million.” (Press release) .
“The Company had a record cash balance of $162.8 million … as of September 30, 2025.” (Press release) .
“As previously disclosed, the Company is entitled to receive up to an aggregate of approximately $10.0 million of reimbursement payments from the U.S. Department of Defense upon the achievement of certain project milestones …” (Press release) .

No Q3 2025 call transcript or Q&A was available; therefore no clarifications or tone read-through can be provided from an earnings call record.

EPS matched consensus for Q3 2025 (−$0.11 actual vs. −$0.11 est.)*, consistent with the pre‑revenue status and steady operating cadence .
EBITDA was better than expected (−$2.60M actual vs. −$4.06M est.)*, indicating lower operating burn vs. the single estimate baseline.
Revenue remains at zero*, consistent with development-stage status; no top-line surprise.
Street target price consensus sits at $12.75 (3 estimates)*.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Liquidity inflection: cash of $162.8M post-quarter (Sept 30), supported by ~$155M in equity offerings, materially de-risks near‑term funding for feasibility and drilling workstreams .
P&L optics: Q3 2025 loss and EPS were stable YoY; subsequent quarter’s GAAP loss was dominated by non‑cash earnout/warrant remeasurement, while adjusted loss indicates more modest operating burn .
Execution milestones ahead: feasibility study update and Elk Creek reserve drilling are programmatic catalysts; DoD milestone reimbursements (up to ~$10M) could partially offset project costs .
Pre‑revenue profile: with no sales yet, valuation and stock reaction hinge on financing progress, engineering derisking, and regulatory/permits readiness rather than quarterly revenue/EPS variability .
Watch financing channels: disclosures highlight ongoing dependence on capital markets and government-backed debt/guarantees; monitor EXIM/UK Export Finance outcomes and Nasdaq compliance .
Trading setup: near term, newsflow around feasibility study, land/construction readiness, and government reimbursements likely to drive narrative; medium-term thesis centers on advancing Elk Creek to construction with sufficient project financing .

Citations:

Q3 2025 preliminary results (loss/EPS; filing plans): .
Q1 2026 preliminary results (cash, adjusted vs. GAAP loss; financing; land acquisition; DoD reimbursements): .
Risk and forward-looking statements: .

Values retrieved from S&P Global for items marked with * (GetEstimates and GetFinancials).